40 Years After Chernobyl, War Layers Another Disaster on the Exclusion Zone

A double anniversary

April marks 40 years since the explosion at Reactor No. 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant — the worst nuclear accident in history. Tens of thousands of people were evacuated; an exclusion zone of roughly 2,600 square kilometres was sealed off.

What's different this time

Plans had been floated for the contaminated zone to bring economic benefits to Ukraine — eco-tourism, scientific research, even cautious solar projects. Russia's full-scale invasion changed that. Russian forces briefly seized the plant in 2022 and disturbed contaminated soil; today the zone is, for the foreseeable future, an army-controlled security belt.

What's at risk

- Containment: The 'New Safe Confinement' arch over the original sarcophagus is one of the most complex pieces of engineering ever built. Maintenance has been disrupted by war.
- Monitoring: Continuous radiological monitoring requires staff, fuel and connectivity — all in short supply in a frontline-adjacent area.
- Memory: A generation of Ukrainian and Belarusian survivors who lived through 1986 are passing; the institutional memory is fading just as new geopolitical pressure rises.

What to watch

- Any IAEA mission to the site and its findings.
- Discussions in Brussels about postwar reconstruction priorities for the zone.
- Whether Belarus, immediately upwind, contributes to a renewed multilateral monitoring framework.