Iran-US Talks Stall in Islamabad as Sides Settle Into 'No War, No Peace'
What happened
Planned direct talks between U.S. and Iranian delegations in Islamabad failed to materialise this weekend, despite Pakistan locking down its capital in anticipation. President Trump cancelled the trip of his envoys — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — after Tehran said no direct meeting was on the table.
The shape of the standoff
Analysts now describe the U.S.-Iran posture as 'no war, no peace': hostilities are paused, but neither a ceasefire nor a deal is in place. Each side is calculating it can outlast the other.
- Washington's bet: maximum pressure plus military leverage forces concessions.
- Tehran's bet: domestic resilience plus regional proxies make the cost of any new strike too high.
Why a stalemate is risky
Without a written framework, every flashpoint — a strike in Lebanon, a Houthi attack in the Red Sea, a Revolutionary Guards convoy moving in Syria — can re-ignite the conflict. Iranian officials, meanwhile, are partly reversing currency policy and tapping the sovereign fund to keep essentials affordable, signalling they expect the standoff to continue.
What to watch
- Whether mediators (Qatar, Oman, Pakistan) attempt a fresh format.
- The status of Lebanon's three-week ceasefire extension, which is fraying.
- Any movement in the IAEA's access to Iranian facilities.
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