The great derivatives disconnect: Why 'negative' funding is actually a bullish signal for Bitcoin

The story

Panelists are split on the four-year cycle's relevance, with year-end price targets varying widely from potentially not reaching a new high to possible targets of $150k or $250k.

From the source

Funding rates have been running near minus 4% annualized, James Aitchison, founder and CIO of Caerus Global, said during a panel at Consensus Miami 2026 . That means longs are being paid to hold exposure, a rare setup that points to heavy short positioning.

“The longs are getting paid, which is quite a rarity,” Aitchison said. “On a 30-day basis, the lowest it has been this decade.”

The setup mirrors a broader derivatives disconnect. Bitcoin funding rates hit their most negative levels since 2023 in April, even as BTC pushed through $75,000 at the time. Aitchison said similar conditions have historically preceded positive returns over 30- to 365-day periods.

Who and what

Key names and topics in this story: Bitcoin.

Where to follow next

• Read the full piece at www.coindesk.com
• More from our Crypto & web3 coverage